Permian Shale: Such a Paradox

Shale is no longer new news to those that have any involvement in oil and gas upstream operations. We know it it is one of the larger industry disruptors of our careers. Right up there with 3D seismic technologies, directional drilling, MWD, and a host of other technologies developed in our life time. 

On September 27, Chronicle presented yet another data set about the most active drilling areas in the US; West Texas and New Mexico's shale fields. Colin Eaton wrote the article titled: "Prolific basin in West Texas and New Mexico is likely to soon produce more oil in a year than the previous high mark set in 1973"

I've read previous articles stating there is more oil in place in this single area than Saudi Arabia. Colin states: "there's more oil in place than Kuwait and Argentina combined". And then goes on to say that "up to another 70 billion barrels may still be recoverable". None of this is really new news. 

Yet here's the paradox. Texas and New Mexico has more oil in place than they can shake a stick at in an area that was in my career deemed dead in the water never to come alive again. YET - they have to make money or it will begin to slow down. 

Obviously some portion of those wells are not profitable because as the article states: 

"One piece of evidence that many of today’s cluster of oil wells aren’t profitable: Oil companies have left almost 2,300 wells dormant, waiting for crude prices to rise before they bring the drilled but unfinished wells into production."

This would then lead one to imagine that there may be many more wells that could be drilled but won't till prices climb, and when that happens another surge will occur putting pressure on the upward momentum of price increases. 

We are only talking about West Texas and New Mexico. We know there are other oil and gas Shale plays yet to be developed and yet to be discovered in the world. It would certainly appear that shortages are not on our global horizon any time soon. Especially with OPEC and Russia espousing their "temporary" production cuts. 

Which leads to perhaps the biggest paradox of all. Assuming somehow, the price of oil does begin to rise and appears to be sustainable just like the last 5 times in my career that it rose and appeared to be sustainable; more wells will surely be drilled in shale producing regions and if it really looks sustainable, we will see offshore subsea begin to roll again......and even more production will hit the markets. 

As a footnote, another article appeared in the Chronicle this morning Oct 4, 2017 written by Collin Eaton - "Permian Land Rush Looses Steam" - "Rising production costs, high acreage prices and a shareholder push for financial discipline have dramatically slowed the land rush in the Permian Basin, one of the world’s most active oil fields.

Drillers spent $35 billion in West Texas over a nine-month period that ended in early spring. By comparison, the collective value of land deals of the last six months is less than $5 billion, energy research firm Wood Mackenzie reports."

What a business to be in. And to think, many of us lived through almost 50 years of this kind of roller coaster price and activity swings. And I'd do it all over again. 

T.

Oregon Trail - Post Tour Stats and Comment

Garmin Statistics

Total Milage: 849 miles (BJ & Tom)
280 miles (Bill)* 360 miles (Joe)*

Calculated Calories Burned: 54,000 (Tom)

Total Time on Bike: 65 Hours (Tom & BJ)

Maximum Speed: 47 MPH (Tom)

Average Speed: 12.5 / 14.5 MPH (Tom)

Total Feet Climbed: 36,000 (Tom & BJ)

*Note: Bill and Joe left as planned after the first week of riding. Bill missed about 40 miles of day 3 and all of day 4 due to equipment failure (a broken shoe.)

BJ, Gay and I rolled into Missoula Montana after 11 Cycling days, and 2 rest days. We ended the tour at Adventure Cycling's world Hq. An organization we have used for years to guide us on numerous tours.

Our tour took us all the way across Oregon from the coast to the Snake River and thru Idaho into western Montana. Gay and I also drove through parts of Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming, traveling to and then returning from the tour.

Our daily mileage average was challenging creating at times a fair amount of fatigue and mental stress for all the riders. Even with the challenges, it was marvelous even with the 50 plus fires burning across the region. Due to the hurricanes, few people know about these fires. But they are real and burn as this is written.

I stopped to meet and talk to a number of true bicycle tourists. The photo below is Greg, who began his tour fully loaded in New York on April 1. He rode down to Virginia and then across the heart of the US to Montana where I met him near LOLO Pass headed the direction we just came from, to the coast of Oregon. Greg will have over 4000 miles when he completes the tour in a couple of weeks. Other photos of people I talked to are in the linked photo album.

There are just too many stories to tell in a blog like this. But there were a few highlight stories that I just have to tell.

The Water Story - Joe and BJ ran out of water at least 2 times on the tour. Each initially carrying 2-3 bottles and drinking them at a rate they did not anticipate before support arrived. On one of those days, Joe began stopping people asking if they could spare water which led to a meeting with a highway worker named Leroy who told us about multiple Eclipse festivals in Oregon.

One of those festivals had over 70,000 people who paid $400 each to camp in the wilderness and experience a Woodstock like experience. He was vivid in his description of the topless women swimming the the stock ponds during the event. He said they had over 700 security people. Bet you didn't hear about that in the news.

Later, Joe miraculously began to appear each morning with a camel back on after that day. BJ simply stuffed additional water bottles in his jersey pockets.

Another story occurred in Baker City where I met a guy named Gandalf riding a recumbent trike. He said he was riding across the US and handed me a card. Behind him was a trailer with what looked like a covered wagon. He said that is where his dog sits. We checked out his card and found out he lived in Baker City and had not left yet on this grand tour. But he indicated that his reason for the tour was to start what is called "The Joy Pandemic North America Bicycle Tour", creating a new and greater state of being. (Yea Right) His pic follows. Hes on Facebook if you want to know more.

In brief summary, we all had a great time. We were challenged and we persevered. We saw parts of Oregon and Idaho we would never have seen. And found places we want to go back to.

Leg 1 of the ride across the US is now complete.

Photos and videos can be found here. 

Riggins to Kooskia - Smoke, Smoke & more Smoke

We began our ride today early around 6:30am, well before we could see the sun and with a temperature of 62f. To be honest I'm not sure we would have actually viewed the sun until maybe 10:00am because of the terrain around us. Riggins is literally surrounded by mountains and sits in a deep bowl with two rivers merging just below our hotel. A photo is shown below.

The beginning of our ride today gave us 30 miles of descent into White Bird Idaho. Then a 7 mile climb and another descent into Kooskia. The further we moved into the heartland of Idaho the more smoke we saw and had to breathe. Following is a photo of the smoke we climbed into during that first 30 miles.

We met Gay in Grangeville to refuel, and also to find that the truck had a slow leak on the front left tire. As this is written it is still leaking slowly. Given that today is Labor Day we could not find a place to have it repaired. So we are in hopes that tomorrow morning the tire will still be holding enough air to pump up with our bicycle pump and then drive to a repair station up the road. Or, use the spare tire for the first time.

As we approached Kooskia we found ourselves in wheat farm land. As BJ would say, it is a lava bedrock with soil that originated from rich composition. It literally looked like Kansas. That is, until we dropped off into a canyon descending a mile at 12% grade that had our rims too hot to touch. It was a stressful mile. BJ hit a 9.5 on the pucker meter. I rounded a corner watching BJ behind me overcook the turn and narrowly missing a 200 foot vertical fall over the edge. Later BJ was viewed on the side of the road wiping his shorts clean while turning his rear tire to cool it off.

Then we arrived in Kooskia to find that Gay had found the hotel that BJ had had reserved and was frantically waving to us to warn us not to go there as it was not a kind looking place. Miraculously Gay had already found a beautiful wood log cabin and already had it rented. BJ cancelled the other reservations. All turned out well.

Two days to go.

So So Beautiful

We now have over 633 miles under our belt since departing the Oregon coast. While I've included a few photos in this post, you can view others if you wish by clicking here. 

Cycling Area	Distance	Calories	Time
Cambridge Cycling	81.34	5,337	5:48:55
Baker City Cycling	109.88	7,758	8:45:20
John Day Cycling	80.95	5,640	6:21:02
Mitchell Cycling	69.15	4,998	4:54:58
Prineville Cycling	46.84	3,066	3:38:21
Prineville Cycling	0	--	00:01.8
Cycling	0	--	00:00.4
Blue River Cycling	100.02	6,773	8:33:17
Eugene Cycling	62.06	4,040	4:18:10
Florence Cycling	82.15	1,877	5:59:24
Florence Cycling	1.17	28	05:19.8
	633.56

We continue to be astounded by the scenery. Every time we think we are going to see nothing but desert terrain, it turns into lush green or at least relatively green and wooded views. Hells Canyon is an example. When we departed John Day, crossing over the original Oregon Trail, it looked like southern Wyoming. Hot, dry and filled with sage. But soon that turned into irrigated farm land and water all around us. This has not been a desert tour, thank goodness.
The last post left off with us arriving in John Day Oregon for our first day off. Today we are enjoying our second much needed day off now in Riggins Idaho. And rest we did. After 12 hours of sleep we boarded a river raft for a half day trek down the Salmon River. Here is a photo of our motley crew.

Gotta Go Joe and The Ghost Bill departed our group as planned day before yesterday in Baker City Oregon. They both proved me wrong with my prediction that their flat land gears would eat their lunch. The Ghost proved it daily by arriving first in every destination except for the day he was searching for new shoes to replace his ultralight carbon racing shoes. Ok guys, I don't do this very often but I was wrong. You did fine with your gears.

So far we have completed two century days, each after 30 plus mile climbs at 7% on average. Climbs that test your soul. Especially with the heat we are now seeing in Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho.

Today we have 107f and day before yesterday same on a very long climb after crossing over the Snake River at the Oxbow Reservoir into Idaho. Near the top of that climb, I had to pull over and pour water on my head to stop the movement of the ground below my bike. Heat makes your brain see and feel things you know are false. And when that begins to happen it's time to pull over. Cool water on the head does wonders and quickly.

BJ is climbing these passes at about 7 mph while I'm sitting at about 4 mph on the recumbent. BJ descends at about 28mph while I descend at about 40mph. Almost a wash in average speeds except for those days where the climb is greater than the descent.

We are meeting a great number of interesting people on this tour. Virtually all are kind and inquisitive. One example is the gentleman below I met in Baker City. His name is Gandalf. On a bicycle crusade to rebirth humanity one smile at a time. He carries an 80 lb dog on his crusade across the country. (Facebook: Joy Pandemic North American Bicycle Tour)

While our Gulf Coast is suffering from the greatest catastrophe in our lives and possibly in history, the Pacific NW is suffering from some of the most devastating fires seen in recent times. Smoke has become a common expectation every day since early in the tour. And we have more smoke and fire to navigate in the last 3 days ahead. I wake up every morning with a continuous cough.


There are just so many stories. But I would bore you with them if I put them all in this post. So they will have to wait. But one example of a story can be viewed in the final photo of this post. An Axe throwing contest in New Meadow Idaho.

Till next time, all the best to you all.

First 5 Days - Smoke - Fire - Lots of Miles

First, my sincere condolences to all that have endured Hurricane Harvey's wrath. I am so very sorry for the misery it has caused both physical and mental. In my life I can only compare my days in New Orleans with my brother just after Katrina hit. Sights and smells I will never forget. A storm that in my mind eventually led in many ways to my brothers suicide.

We are now in John Day. Our first rest day of the tour. 5 Days of riding; Florence, Eugene, McKenzie Bridge, Prineville, Mitchell, John Day. The photo below was taken near the Heceta Light House up Hy 101 from Florence.

Following are a few stats pertaining to our ride thus far:

• Total Miles thru Day 5 = 361
• Total Approximate Calories burned = 21,000
• 32 Hours on the bike
• Ascent or Climbing Thus Far: 15,000'
• Average Speed: Does not matter cause it's a tour. :)

By far the two most beautiful days have been Florence to Eugene on day 1 and then yesterdays ride from Mitchel to John Day. Coastal rain forest are indescribable. And the country west of Mitchel turned out to be moderately lush high desert. Meaning there were trees and water on the route and we had a beautiful descent with little traffic. 

As we have said many times in the past, sitting behind the seat of a car windshield or watching touring videos from the comfort of a sofa can never compare with touring on a bicycle. All 5 senses are engaged with the country around you. The smell of Blue Spruce and Sequoias and smoke from the many forest fires along our route. The sounds of the rivers and streams. The feel of the air and our tired legs and fatigue. The sights unfolding in front of you while you take in the other senses. 

So far this tour has been pretty much all I had hoped for. We have many stories to tell. Stories that will be retold for years to come. Here are the highlights of a few of those stories so far. 

• The Golden Wheel Awards - Joe and Bill have received them every day. The first time for missing the route turn and deciding to "do it their way" and riding through Eugene traffic instead of following the Adventure Cycling map that took BJ and I to down town via safe bicycle paths. 
• BJ walking over to a car and opening the rear hatch with the driver standing right beside him. Only to find out it was really the drivers car not Bills rented car. 
• The climb over Santiam Pass that lasted over 35 miles with smoke and Sunday traffic that I don't ever want to see again. We rode 105 miles that day. Opps, sorry we all rode 105 except Bill who decided to go to Bend instead of Mitchel. 
• Joes side wall flat and the ensuing frustration after it blew out again in the same side wall cut that he missed the first time. Not to mention his use of racing tires instead of touring tires for the tour. 
• Bills equipment failure. His $300 carbon racing shoes split in half as he attempted to ride from Sisters to Mitchel to make up for his side trip to Bend. The failure led to a trip back to Bend for new cheap shoes and the loss of that segment of the trip. 
• The wrong turns and almost wrong turns we all made during the trip. These should be fewer now that we don't have to follow a map so closely and watch signs to make sure we are on the right road. But a few tricky turns still await us.

Ok enough for now. If you wish, you can view the photos I've taken so far by clicking here. 

It may be a few days before I post again. 

Houston We Have A Problem

We are now in Bend Oregon after 4 days on the road. Almost 2000 miles. Stayed in Boise Idaho last nite. The roads were clear and with light to moderate traffic all the way through the desert of Utah. Only moderate traffic in Boise Idaho and Salt Lake City. It was in Burns, Oregon that things got interesting. This is what the country looks like:


You might recall Burns was in the news in January of 2016 when a group calling themselves Citizens for Constitutional Freedom holed up at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.  There were about 12 of them intent on taking over the US and starting a new government to make America Great Again. Followers of Ammon and Ryan Bundy who ever they are. Click on the link if you want to know more. Anyway, that's not what I'm writing about today.

What I'm writing about today is what Burns looked like when we arrived - Gridlocked. Looked like an evacuation. Every friggin gas station had multiple lines waiting to get gas at over $3.00 per gallon. There were like 6 stations and all had lines.

We finally just picked one and waited our turn. When we made it to the pump the pump attendant told us it was the Solar Eclipse. He said the town had been like this for 3 days. People from the west coast and parts of Idaho traveled there to view the eclipse and were heading home. Looks kind of like it did in New Orleans after Katrina but without the devastation. Amazing to see that out on the high desert. Kind of scary. Both the gridlock and the attempted take over of the United States government.

Any way that is only part of the story. When we got to Bend we found out there is a wild fire out of Sisters Oregon. A big fire called the Milli Fire. Like 11,000 acres big and right on our route in a few days. So we now have a humongous wild fire on our route we are going to have to plan contingencies for.



That's it, I'm tired. We pick BJ up at the airport tomorrow afternoon. Then on to Florence on the coast. Gosh I hope we don't see any more drama. This is supposed to be a nice leisurely bicycle tour.

More soon.

We're Not in Houston Any More Toto

Gay and I departed Amarillo about 8:00am this morning. Heading the usual way toward Colorado but turning in Walsenburg and following SH 69 thru the scenic back roads of South Central Colorado. Places like, Gardner, Wolf Springs Ranch, Texas Creek and then Salida.

Took us maybe 2 hours more today because we did the retirement thing, we TOOK THE ROADS LESS TRAVELED. Imagine that. Taking a road that takes you longer than it would have if you were 30 years old and in "Bust Your ASS" work mode. It's not all bad folks. My brother Larry used to call that "Smelling the Roses".

We stopped in Salida and visited a couple of bike shops and walked by the river and watched the swimmers and kayakers in the city park. A place I've been on at least 2 Bicycle tours of Colorado in the past.

We then proceeded on to Gunnison and Black Canyon on the Curecanti National Recreation Area then on to Grand Junction. All places we have visited on past bike tours and very beautiful country on the Western Slope of the Rockies.

The bikes are all fairing well. Only 2 rain storms. Shipping these bikes up would have cost approximately $300 in RT shipping charges and up to another $200. in boxing and disassembly/assembly costs Rt. Or about $500 per rider. Vs. us driving them up.

Tomorrow it's on to Salt Lake City and then Boise Idaho.